Ditsamaiso · Tsamaiso · metsotso e 7

Tsamaiso: Bond Spread

$140 ho tstse hodimo, $50 ho six line 13–18, $10 ho zero: $200 potolohong ka nngwe, dinomoro tse 25 di kwahetswe. Kabo ya James Bond ka dipotoloho tse mashome a mabedi.

Karabo e kgutshwane

Seshene e etsisitsweng ya dipotoloho tse 20 ya kabo e rekiswang e le leano la James Bond. Ho hlola ha leshome le metso e mmedi ha $80, ho otla hararo ha six line ha $100, zero e le nngwe ka $160, le ditahlehelo tse nne tsa $200 ho 1–12. Sephetho +$620, ha ho mohla re bileng tlase ka ho feta $40. Kabo e kwahela hoo e ka bang dikarolo tse pedi ho tse tharo tsa lebidi. Ha e nngwe ya dinomoro tse sa kwahelwang e hlaha, bete yohle ya $200 e a tsamaya.

potolohong ka nngwe
$200
e kwahela
25 ho 37
p(ho hlola)
67.6%
se lebelletsweng potolohong ka nngwe
−$5.41

Moralo

Tafoleng ya mokgwa wa Sefora: $140 ho 19–36, $50 ho six linebeteSix lineDinomoro tse tsheletseng meleng e mmedi e bapileng, e lefa 5:1. Sefora: sixain.Bala kaofela → 13–18, $10 ho zerolebidiZeroMokotlana o le mong o motala oo ho seng bete ya tefo e lekanang, ya dozen kapa ya kholomo e o koahelang; mohlodi wa molemo wa khasino. Hape: zero e le nngwe, 0.Bala kaofela →. Dinomoro tse mashome a mabedi a metso e mehlano di kwahetswe. Nomoro tse hodimo e lefa $140 mme e lahlehelwa ke $60: +$80. Nomoro ya six line e lefa $250 mme e lahlehelwa ke $150: +$100. Zero e lefa $350 mme e lahlehelwa ke $190: +$160. Efe kapa efe ya 1–12 e lahlehelwa ke tsohle: −$200. Boleng bo lebelletswengdipaloBoleng bo lebelletswengSephetho sa karolelano ka bete ka nako e telele. −1/37 ya tjhelete ya bete bakeng sa bete e nngwe le e nngwe e tlwaelehileng ya Yuropa.Bala kaofela → potolohong ka nngwe ke (18×80 + 6×100 + 160 − 12×200)/37 = −$5.41, e leng 2.70% ya $200. Kabo ke bete e lekanang e apereng diaparo tsa papadi.

Leano la Roulette la ho Beta ka ho Lekana

Dipotoloho 1–10

19 27 7 33 15 0 23 31 11 29. Tstse hodimo tse tsheletseng, six line e le nngwe, zero e le nngwe, ditahlehelo tse pedi: +480 +100 +160 −400 = +$340. Tjhelete e setseng +$340 ka mora dipotoloho tse leshome, ka dipotoloho tse pedi tse lahlehileng tseo e nngwe le e nngwe e nkileng $200. Zero potolohong ya 6 e lefile $160, e leng lekgetlo feela leo zero e ileng ya utlwahala eka ke motswalle.

potolohonomorosephethosephetho sa tjheletetjhelete e setseng
119tse hodimo+$80+$80
227tse hodimo+$80+$160
371–12−$200−$40
433tse hodimo+$80+$40
515six line+$100+$140
60zero+$160+$300
723tse hodimo+$80+$380
831tse hodimo+$80+$460
9111–12−$200+$260
1029tse hodimo+$80+$340
Potoloho ya botsheletseng: bolo e fumana zero, mme tjhipi ya $10 ho yona e etsa potoloho ena hore e be pele ka $160.

Dipotoloho 11–20

5 22 36 14 20 2 28 34 17 25. Ditahlehelo tse pedi dipotolohong tse tsheletseng tsa pele di kgutlisitse tjhelete e setseng ho +$280; ebe tstse hodimo tse tharo le six line di kwetse seshene ho +$620. Dipotoloho tse mashome a mabedi: tstse hodimo tse 12, ho otla ha six line ha 3, zero e 1, ditahlehelo tse 4. Sephetho se lebelletsweng e ne e le −$108; sa nnete +$620, e ka bang diphapang tse tlwaelehilengdipaloPhapang e tlwaelehilengMotso wa sekwere wa phapang (variance); sebaka se tlwaelehileng sa sephetho ho tloha boleng bo lebelletsweng.Bala kaofela → tse 1.2 ka hodimo ho tebello, bosiu bo botle.

Seshene ena le tse ding tse robong tse kang yonasephetho kgahlanong le qalo
+$5,500$0−$2,000+$1,640−$1,0000125250375500dipotolohosephetho
diseshene tse 1,000 × dipotoloho tse 500 · violet p10/p25/p75/p90, boputswa bo bobebe bohareng, disampole tse 82 tse fifetseng · tsamaisa hodima tjhate ho bona di-quantile potolohong
  • p10 −$2,000
  • p25 −$2,000
  • bohareng −$2,000
  • p75 −$2,000
  • p90 +$780
diseshene tse 1,000 × dipotoloho tse 500 · axis ya y e kgutsufaditswe ho percentile ya 1–99 (dipheletso −$2,000 ho isa ho +$8,860) · dipotoloho tse 500 · motheo $200 · Bond spread
Bete e lekanang ya $200 ho dinomoro tse 25: ho hlola ha $80–$160 e ka bang dipotoloho tse pedi ho tse tharo, ditahlehelo tsa $200 potoloho e le nngwe ho tse tharo. Mola wa karolelano o theoha ka −$5.41 potolohong ka nngwe.

Ditlaleho tsa tjhelete

Kakaretso ya dibete $4,000 ka dipotoloho tse mashome a mabedi. Tahlehelo e lebelletswengdipaloTahlehelo e lebelletswengBoleng bo lebelletsweng bo atisitswe ka kakaretso ya tjhelete e betilweng; tjhelete ya karolelano e lahlehang ka seshene kapa nakong e itseng.Bala kaofela → $108. Phapang e tlwaelehileng ya potoloho e le nngwe e ka bang $135, kahoo dipotoloho tse mashome a mabedi di na le phapang e tlwaelehileng e ka bang $605; +$620 kapa ho feta ke bosiu bo le bong ho tse robong. Dipotoloho tse tshwanang tse mashome a mabedi ka $200 e lekanang ho kgubedubeteKgubeduBete ya tefo e lekanang ho dinomoro tse 18 tse kgubedu. Sefora: rouge.Bala kaofela → di ka be di bile le tebello e tshwanang le kabo e pharalletseng (σ ≈ $200 potolohong ka nngwe): kabo e na le phapangdipaloPhapang (Variance)Tekanyo ya hore na diphetho di hasane hakae ho potoloha boleng bo lebelletsweng. E phahame bakeng sa straight up, e tlase bakeng sa dibete tsa tefo e lekanang.Bala kaofela → e tlase ho feta bete ya tefo e lekanangbeteBete ya tefo e lekanangKgubedu/ntsho, tse sa lekaneng/tse lekaneng, tse hodimo/tse tlase. Dinomoro tse 18, e lefa 1:1.Bala kaofela → hobane e hlola hangata mme ka tjhelete e nyane.

Seo seshene e se bontshang

Kabo ya Bond ke dibete tse tharo tseo ditebello tsa tsona di kopanang ho ba −1/37 ya kakaretso, jwaloka motswako o mong le o mong wa dibete tse tlwaelehileng. Semelo sa yona sa nnete ke ho kwahela: sekgahla sa ho hlola sa 67.6% se etsa hore mantsiboya a utlwahale eka ke sistimi. 32.4% ya dipotoloho tse lahlehelwang e nka $200 ka nngwe, mme ka nako e telele e nka hantle seo dipalo di se bolelang. Leha ho le lebitso, ha e teng dibukeng tsa Fleming: Bond wa hae o beta di-dozenbeteDozen1–12, 13–24 kapa 25–36, e lefa 2:1.Bala kaofela → tse pedi. Dibukana tsa maano di entse tse ding.

Roulette DingolwengLeano la Di-Dozen le Dikholomo ho Roulette

Dipotso

Na kabo e sebetsa hantle ho feta ka la partage?

Bete ya tstse hodimo ke ya tefo e lekanang, kahoo tafoleng ya Fora e lahlehelwa ke $70 feela ho zero ho ena le $140, mme zero e fana ka +$230 ho ena le +$160. Molemo o kopantsweng o ka bang 1.8%. E betere, mme e ntse e le tlase ho zero.

Hobaneng $140, $50, $10?

Dikarolelano di batla di lekanya ho hlola: $80, $100, $160. Dikarolelano dife kapa dife di fana ka molemo o tshwanang.

Na ke bete e lekanang?

E. O beta $200 ho dinomoro tse tshwanang tse 25 potolohong e nngwe le e nngwe. Ha ho tjhelete kapa kgetho e fetohang ka mora ho hlola kapa tahlehelo.

Ho phomola ka metlae

Dikarolo tse pedi ho tse tharo tsa lebidi. Karolo e le nngwe ho tse tharo ya nako, tsohle.

Dikarolo tse pedi ho tse tharo tsa lebidi. Karolo e le nngwe ho tse tharo ya nako, tsohle.

Mehlodi

  1. Fleming, I. Casino Royale. Jonathan Cape, 1953. Kgaolo ya 7: Bond o beta di-dozen tse pedi, e seng kabo ena.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Kgaolo ya 13, roulette.
e hlahlobilwe 2026-09-28mohlala: Yuropa, zero e le nngwemokgwa wa ho bala ↗mehlodi ↗