Laboratori ya Roulette · Laboratori · Dipalopalo · metsotso e 8

Teko ya Chi-Square

Teko e tlwaelehileng bakeng sa “na dipalo tsena tse 37 ke seo lebidi le lekaneng le neng le tla se hlahisa?”

Karabo e kgutshwane

χ² = Σ (e bonweng − e lebelletsweng)² / e lebelletsweng ho mekotlana yohle e 37. Bapisa le kabo ya chi-square ho degrees of freedom tse 36 ho fumana p-value.

palo ya teko
Σ (O−E)²/E
df
36
moedi ho 5%
51.0
moedi ho 1%
58.6

Ho e bala

Palo e lebelletsweng ka mokotlanadisebediswaMokotlanaE nngwe ya dikarolo tse 37 tse nang le dinomoro hodima rotor. Hape: slot, cup.Bala kaofela → ke n/37. Bakeng sa mokotlana ka mong, eba sekwere phapang pakeng tsa e bonweng le e lebelletsweng mme o arole ka e lebelletsweng; kopanya dikarolo tse 37. Lebidi le lekaneng le fana ka boleng bo ka bang 36 ka karolelano (degrees of freedomlaboratoriDegrees of freedomPalo ya maemo a ikemetseng ho statistic. Bakeng sa teko ya chi-square ho mekotlana e 37 ke 36, hobane dipalo di tlameha ho kopana ho ba kakaretso.Bala kaofela →), ka phapang e tlwaelehilengdipaloPhapang e tlwaelehilengMotso wa sekwere wa phapang (variance); sebaka se tlwaelehileng sa sephetho ho tloha boleng bo lebelletsweng.Bala kaofela → ya hoo e ka bang 8.5. Ka hodima 51.0 ho bohlokwa boemong ba 5%; ka hodima 58.6 ho 1%. Mohlahlobi wa Leeme la Lebidi la Roulette o bala palo ya teko le p-valuelaboratorip-valueMonyetla wa ho bona kgeloho e kgolo bonyane jwalo ka e bonweng haeba lebidi le ne le lokile.Bala kaofela → e nepahetseng ho tswa ho regularized incomplete gamma function.

dipotoloho tse ne lebelletsweng ka mokotlanaσ ka mokotlanamokotlana ho +2σmokotlana ho +3σ
370103.11619
1,000275.13742
3,7001009.9120130
10,00027016.2303319
37,0001,00031.21,0621,094
σ ≈ √(n·p·(1−p)) moo p = 1/37. Dipotolohong tse 1,000 mokotlana o hlotseng makgetlo a 37 ha o makatse; o hlotseng a 42 o loketse sampole ya bobedi.

Mohlala o sebeditsweng

Dipotoloho tse 1,000. Mekotlana e mashome a mararo a metso e tsheletseng e hlola pakeng tsa makgetlo a 20 le a 34; mokotlana wa 8 o na le a 41. E lebelletsweng ke 27.03. Karolo ya mokotlana wa 8 e le nngwe ke (41 − 27.03)²/27.03 = 7.2. Ha re re dikarolo tse ding tse 36 di kopana ho ba 38 (e tlwaelehileng). χ² = 45.2 ho df tse 36, p ≈ 0.14. Ha e bohlokwa: lebidi le lekaneng le etsa sena hang ho tse supileng. Mokotlana wa 8 ke mokgethwa, e seng ntho e fumanweng, mme karabo ke dipotoloho tse ding tse sekete.

Dikgopolo tse nkuwang

Dipotoloho tse ikemetsengdipaloDipotoloho tse ikemetsengPotoloho ka nngwe e na le menyetla e tshwanang ho sa tsotellehe nalane. Motheo wa palo e nngwe le e nngwe sebakeng sena.Bala kaofela →, le dipalo tse lebelletsweng tsa bonyane 5 ka mokotlana, e leng ho bolelang n ≥ 185 hore teko e be e nepahetseng ho hang le ho feta haholo hore e be le thuso. Ho kopanya dipotoloho tsa mabidi a fapaneng ho tlola kgopolo ya pele ka moya (o leka motswako, e seng lebidi). Phello ya tshaeno ya croupier e ne e tla e tlola ka nnete, mme e ne e tla phahamisa χ² ntle le hore mokotlana ofe kapa ofe o ratwe ka sebele.

Tshaeno ya Croupier wa RouletteDipotoloho tsa Roulette tse Ikemetseng

Pearson le Monte Carlo

Karl Pearson o phatlaladitse teko ena ka 1900, mme o mong wa mehlala ya hae ya pele e sebeditsweng e ne e le dipotoloho tse 26,306 tsa roulette ya Monte Carlo tse ngotsweng, tseo a fumaneng di sa lekalekane haholo hore e be monyetla feela mme a phatlalatsa hore “roulette ya Monte Carlo… hase papadi ya monyetla”. Bangodi ba morao ba ile ba fihlela qeto ya hore baqolotsi ba ditaba ba neng ba ngolla koranta dipotoloho ba ne ba iqapetse tse ngata tsa tsona, e leng thuto ka bo yona mabapi le tshimoloho ya data.

Teko le lebidi
1900

Pearson o phatlalatsa teko ya chi-square ya goodness-of-fit, ka dipotoloho tsa Monte Carlo e le mohlala.

dilemo tsa bo1900

Data ya dipotoloho e a belaellwa; bangodi ba bonahala ba iqapetse ditatelano.

dilemo tsa bo1920

Fisher o hlalosa degrees of freedom ka semmuso; tlwaelo ya 5% e a tiea.

dilemo tsa bo1940–50

Ditsebi tsa dipalopalo di sebedisa dipotoloho tsa roulette e le data ya dibuka tsa thuto bakeng sa diteko tsa ho lekalekana.

dilemo tsa bo1990

Lelapa la García-Pelayo le sebedisa mokgwa ona ka data ya nnete e ngotsweng mme le hlola Madrid.

kajeno

Dikhasino di etsa teko yona eo mabiding a tsona e le tlhokomelo e tlwaelehileng.

Teko ya Pearson ya 1900 e fumane dipotoloho tsa Monte Carlo di sa lekalekane haholo; bangodi ba koranta ba ne ba iqapetse tse ngata tsa tsona.

Roulette ya Monte Carlo

Teko ya nnete: mabidi a iketsetsang Las Vegas

Dibapadi hangata di belaela hore lebidi le iketsetsang le tsamaisa bolodisebediswaBoloBolo e nyane e qhalwang tseleng kgahlano le rotor. Dibolo tsa sejwalejwale ke tsa ivorine kapa Teflon, 18–21 mm.Bala kaofela → hole le dibete tse kgolo. Manollo ya 2017 e ile ya leka pelaelo ena mabiding a Interblock a se nang croupier a zerolebidiZeroMokotlana o le mong o motala oo ho seng bete ya tefo e lekanang, ya dozen kapa ya kholomo e o koahelang; mohlodi wa molemo wa khasino. Hape: zero e le nngwe, 0.Bala kaofela → tse pedi Las Vegas, e beta karolong e kgopo ya dinomoro tse hlano tse bapileng, mofuta wa bete eo molekanyi wa lebidi a e etsang. Dipotolohong tse 299 karolo eo e hlotse makgetlo a 29 kgahlano le a 39.3 a lebelletsweng, kgaello eo lebidi le lekaneng le e hlahisang hoo e ka bang 4% ya nako. Chi-square ho mekotlana yohle e 38 e ne e le 45.29 ho degrees of freedom tse 37: p = 16.5%. Sampole ya bobedi ya dipotoloho tse 1,204 mabiding a mararo e fane ka χ² = 34.79, p = 57%, mme ha ho karolo ya boholo bofe kapa bofe e lekilweng e neng e le bohlokwa. Disampole ka bobedi hammoho, dipotoloho tse 1,503, di fane ka χ² = 41.75, p = 27%. Qeto e bile hore ha ho bopaki ba ho tsamaisa bolo. Sampole ya pele e le nngwe e ne e shebahala e belaetsa; ya bobedi ke yona e ileng ya qeta taba.

sampoledipotolohoχ²dfp
ya pele29945.293716.5%
ya bobedi, mabidi a mararo1,20434.793757%
ka bobedi1,50341.753727%
Dipalo di tswa manollong eo ya 2017; p-value ka nngwe e latela χ² ya yona. Lebidi la zero tse pedi le na le mekotlana e 38, kahoo degrees of freedom tse 37.

Ho feta chi-square

Bakeng sa mokotlana o le mong o belaellwang teko ya binomial e na le matla a mangata. Bakeng sa karolo e kgopo e belaellwang, z-test ya karolo ya lebidilebidiKarolo ya lebidiMokoloko wa mekotlana e latellanang lebiding, ho fapana le sehlopha moralong wa dibete.Bala kaofela → leqepheng la Manollo ya Dikarolo tsa Lebidi. Chi-square ke teko e akaretsang: e o bolella hore ho na le se fosahetseng ntle le ho bolela hore na ke eng. E sebedise pele, ebe o a sheba.

Manollo ya Dikarolo tsa Lebidi

Fomula

χ² = Σᵢ (Oᵢ − Eᵢ)² / Eᵢ
Eᵢ = n / 37 · df = 36
dipalo tsa moedi: 51.0 (5%) · 58.6 (1%)

Dipotso

Hobaneng degrees of freedom tse 36 e seng tse 37?

Dipalo tse 37 di tlameha ho kopana ho ba n, kahoo ke tse 36 feela tse lokolohileng ho fapana.

Lebidi le nang le leeme le leholo le ne le tla bontsha χ² efe?

Lebidi le nang le mokotlana o le mong ho 1/25 dipotolohong tse 10,000 le ne le tla fana ka karolo ya mokotlana e ka bang 60 e le nngwe; χ² e ka bang 100, p e batla e le zero.

Na nka e etsa ho dipotoloho tse 200?

Ka theknoloji e, ka 5.4 e lebelletsweng ka mokotlana. E ke ke ya fumana letho ntle le lebidi le nang le mokotlana o kwetsweng ka sekgomaretsi.

Ho phomola ka metlae

Kopanya makatso a eketsweng sekwere. Bapisa le 51.0.

Kopanya makatso a eketsweng sekwere. Bapisa le 51.0.

Mehlodi

  1. Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…” Philosophical Magazine 50(302), 1900.
  2. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, kgatiso ya 3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin, kgaolo ya XIV.
  3. Wizard of Odds. “Organic Roulette Experiment.” Hlakubele 2017; ho ntjhafaditswe ka la 3 Phato 2026.
e hlahlobilwe 2026-09-28mohlala: Yuropa, zero e le nngwemokgwa wa ho bala ↗mehlodi ↗