Disebediswa · Khalkhuleita

Khalkhuleita ya Kotsi ya ho Fella ke Tjhelete

Monyetla wa ho fihlela sepheo sa phaello pele o lahlehelwa ke tjhelete ya ho bapala, o beta ka ho lekana ho tefo e lekanang.

Tjhelete ya ho bapala
Bete
Sepheo
fihlela sepheo
24.6%
fella ke tjhelete pele
75.4%
sepheo
+$250
diyuniti (a / b)
50 / 25
dipotoloho tse lebelletsweng ho fihlela qetello
1,168
EV ya boiteko
−$315.70
Ho bala sephetho

Ha o beta $10 ka nako, o na le monyetla wa 24.6% wa ho fetola $500 hore e be $750 pele tjhelete e fela. Dibete tse kgolo di phahamisa monyetla oo hobane dipotoloho tse fokolang di bolela makgetho a fokolang a 2.70%; empa di boetse di etsa hore leeto le be le hlaha haholo. Leka dibete tsa $100 kgahlanong le dibete tsa $5 ho bona phello.

Mokgwa le dikgopolo
Gambler’s ruin ka p = 18/37: P(sepheo) = (1 − (q/p)ᵃ)/(1 − (q/p)ᵃ⁺ᵇ), a = tjhelete ya ho bapala/bete, b = sepheo/bete. Nako e lebelletsweng a/(q−p) − (a+b)·P/(q−p). Dibete tsa tefo e lekanang tse lekanang feela.