Maano · Tswelopele e mpe · metsotso e 9

Leano la Roulette la Martingale

Leano la roulette la Martingale le menahanya bete habedi ka mora tahlehelo e nngwe le e nngwe mme le kgutlela beteng ya motheo ka mora ho hlola. Ho hlola ho hong le ho hong ho kgutlisa ditahlehelo tsohle tse fetileng hammoho le yuniti e le nngwe ya motheo. Leqephe le ka tlase le bontsha seo sena se se etsang ho tjhelete ya ho bapala, le hore na hobaneng se ke ke sa fetola tahlehelo e lebelletsweng.

Karabo e kgutshwaneHa e hlole lebidi. E le leano la roulette la ho menahanya habedi, Martingale e hlahisa ho hlola ho honyane ho hongata le ditahlehelo tse kgolo tsa ka nako e nngwe. Palong efe kapa efe ya dipotoloho tahlehelo e lebelletsweng e ntse e le 2.70% ya kakaretso ya tjhelete e betilweng, mme hobane tswelopele e beta ho hongata, tahlehelo e lebelletsweng sesheneng ka nngwe e kgolo ho feta ya ho beta ka ho lekana, e seng nyane.

Sistimi ya roulette ya Martingale e sebetsa jwang?

O lahlehelwa, mme o menahanya habedi. O hlola, mme o kgutlele beteng ya motheo. Ke sistimi yohle eo. Ka bete ya motheo ya $10 le moedi wa tafole wa $500 tatelano e fela ka mora ditahlehelo tse tsheletseng. Kholomo ya ho qetela ke monyetla wa ho fihla mohatong oo betheng ya tefo e lekanang, moo tahlehelo e nngwe le e nngwe e nang le monyetla wa 19/37.

tahlehelo #bete e latelangkakaretso e kotsingp(ho fihla)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Bete ya motheo $10, moedi wa tafole $500. Ka mora ditahlehelo tse tsheletseng bete e latelang ke $640, ka hodimo ho moedi: tswelopele e a robeha ha $630 e lahlehile. Monyetla wa ditahlehelo tse tsheletseng ka tatelano ho kgubedu ke (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, e ka bang hang boitekong bo bong le bo bong bo 55.

Tsamaya sistiming

Tahlehelo e menahanya bete habedi. Ho hlola ho kgutlela qalong.

bete e latelang1sephetho ho fihlela jwale0dipotoloho0

Dibete le diphetho di ka diyuniti tsa bete ya motheo.

Seshene e shebahala jwang?

Mehato e menyane ho nyoloha, ebe lemati la fatshe. Ho Martingale ya roulette tatelano e nngwe le e nngwe e phethilweng ya ho menahanya habedi e eketsa bete e le nngwe ya motheo, kahoo mola o nyoloha ka ho tsitsa. Tatelano e fihlang moeding wa $500 e kgutlisa $630 hang: 63 ya mehato eo.

Diseshene tse leshome tsa Martingale, motheo wa $10, moedi wa $500sephetho kgahlanong le qalo

diseshene tse 1,000 × dipotoloho tse 500 · violet p10/p25/p75/p90, boputswa bo bobebe bohareng, disampole tse 83 tse fifetseng · tsamaisa hodima tjhate ho bona di-quantile potolohong

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
bohareng −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

diseshene tse 1,000 × dipotoloho tse 500 · axis ya y e kgutsufaditswe ho percentile ya 1–99 (dipheletso −$1,000 ho isa ho +$2,640) · dipotoloho tse 500 · motheo $10 · tefo e lekanang

Mola ka mong ke seshene e le nngwe ya dibete tsa tefo e lekanang ho tloha tjheleteng ya ho bapala ya $1,000. Ho nyoloha ho hoholo, ho wa ka tshohanyetso.

Mehato e menyane ho nyoloha, ebe lemati la fatshe le di kgutlisang tsohle hang.

Simulator

Setting ka seng se tsamaisa diseshene tse 2,000 tsa dibete tsa tefo e lekanang ho tloha tjheleteng ya ho bapala ya $1,000. Diphetho di ntjhafala hanghang.

Bete ya motheo

Moedi wa tafole

Dipotoloho ka seshene

Diphetho tsa diseshene · diseshene tse 2,000 · dipotoloho tse 100 · motheo $10 · moedi $500tahlehelo ← | → phaello

−$1,000$0+$650

beha pointer hodima bara · dibara tse kgubedu ke diseshene tse lahlehetsweng, tse tala tse hlotseng, bara e putswa e pakeng tsa $0

diseshene tse nang le phaello

40.8%

sephetho se bohareng (median)

−$130

sephetho sa karolelano

−$66.44

tswelopele e robehile

59.3% ya diseshene

percentile ya bo5

−$1,000

ho theoha ho hoholo ho bohareng (median)

−$650

Diseshene tse ngata di qetella di phahame hanyane (40.8%), ke sona se kgahlang. Karolelano e tlase ho zero (−$66.44) hobane diseshene tse lahlehetsweng di kgolo: tswelopele ya dibete e fihlile moeding wa tafole ho 59.3% ya diseshene. Sebapadi se betang $10 ka ho lekana dipotolohong tse tshwanang se lebeletse ho lahlehelwa ke hoo e ka bang $27.

Tatelano ya ditahlehelo e tla hangata hakae

Bete ya tefo e lekanang lebiding la zero e le nngwe e lahlehelwa dipotoloho tse 19 ho tse 37. Mola ka mong ke monyetla wa hore tatelano e itseng ya dipotoloho kaofela e lahlehelwe, le seo sebapadi sa Martingale, se menahanyang habedi ka mora tahlehelo e nngwe le e nngwe, se se lahlileng ka nako eo.

Bete ya motheo

ditahlehelo ka tatellano	monyetla	hoo e ka bang 1 ho	e lahlehileng jwale	bete e latelang
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Monyetla ke 19/37 o atiswang ka bowona hang ka tahlehelo e nngwe le e nngwe, ho balwa ho tloha potolohong e itseng. Seshene e telele e na le dipotoloho tse ngata moo tatelano e jwalo e ka qalang teng, ka hona mantsiboyeng a le mang e na le monyetla o moholo haholo ho feta kamoo mola o le mong o bontshang kateng.

Tatelano ya ditahlehelo tse leshome le metso e mehlano e etsahala hang ho diteko tse ka bang 22,000. Seo se utlwahala se bolokehile. Ha ho jwalo, ka mabaka a mabedi. Potoloho e nngwe le e nngwe e qala teko e ntjha, mme mantsiboya a na le dipotoloho tse makgolo. Mme ha ho ya fihlang ho tse leshome le metso e mehlano: ho tloha motheong wa $10 moedi wa $500 o fedisa ho menahanya habedi ka mora ditahlehelo tse tsheletseng, tse etsahalang hang ho diteko tse ka bang 55.

Hobaneng e ke ke ya fetola odds?

Boleng bo lebelletsweng bo a kopanngwa. Haeba bete e nngwe le e nngwe e na le tebello ya −2.70% ya tjhelete ya yona ya bete, tatelano efe kapa efe ya dibete, ho sa tsotellehe hore na ditjhelete tsa bete di kgethwa jwang, e na le tebello ya −2.70% ya kakaretso e betilweng. Kgetho ya tjhelete ya bete e ka itshetleha ka diphetho tse fetileng; e ke ke ya itshetleha ka e latelang.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ e kgethwa pele ho potoloho i; Xᵢ = ±1 e ikemetse ho bᵢ

Dikgopolo tse fosahetseng tse tlwaelehileng

“O hloka ho hlola hang feela ho kgutlisa tsohle.”

Ke nnete ka hara tswelopele e phethehang. Tswelopele e sa phethehang, ka lebaka la moedi wa tafole kapa tjhelete ya hao ya ho bapala, e lahlehelwa ke tatelano yohle, mme tatelano eo e kgolo ka moralo.

“Ka tjhelete ya ho bapala e kgolo ka ho lekana e ke ke ya hloleha.”

Moedi wa tafole o emisa ho menahanya habedi pele ho nako e telele ho feta ditjhelete tse ngata tsa ho bapala. Ntle le moedi, tjhelete ya ho bapala e hlokehang e hola ka ho menahana ha phaello potolohong ka nngwe e dula e le yuniti e le nngwe ya motheo.

“Ditahlehelo tse tsheletseng ka tatelano di batla di sa kgonehe.”

Ho kgubedu e etsahala ho 1.83% ya difenstere tsa dipotoloho tse tsheletseng. Sesheneng ya dipotoloho tse 200 hangata o tla bona bonyane tatelano e le nngwe ya tse tsheletseng.

Ho phomola ka metlae

Ho hlola ho honyane ho hongata, tahlehelo e le nngwe e kgolo e sa tlwaelehang. Mme o lefa tleime eo ka bowena.

Qeto ya dipaloSistimi ya Martingale ho roulette e fapanyetsana monyetla o phahameng wa ho hlola ho honyane ka monyetla o monyane wa tahlehelo e kgolo. Ke inshorense e rekiswang ka tsela e fapaneng: o bokella premium e nyane bosiu bo bongata mme o lefa tleime e kgolo e sa tlwaelehang ka bowena. E phahamisa tjhelete e betwang sesheneng ka nngwe, kahoo e phahamisa tahlehelo e lebelletsweng sesheneng ka nngwe. Ha e fokotse mme e ke ke ya fokotsa molemo wa khasino. Haeba o sebedisa leano la Martingale ho roulette leha ho le jwalo, tseba ntlha ya hao ya ho robeha esale pele: ka motheo wa $10 le moedi wa $500, ke ditahlehelo tse tsheletseng ka tatelano, ketsahalo ya 1.8% boitekong bo bong le bo bong. Bona Tsamaiso ya tjhelete ya ho bapala le Moedi wa tahlehelo / moedi wa phaello.