Ditsamaiso · Tsamaiso · metsotso e 8

Tsamaiso: Mantsiboya a $100 ho Kgubedu

Didolara tse lekgolo, ditjhipi tsa didolara tse hlano, kgubedu potolohong e nngwe le e nngwe, le molao wa ho emisa. Potoloho ka potoloho.

Karabo e kgutshwane

Mantsiboya a etsisitsweng tafoleng e phelang: ho fihlela dipotoloho tse 60 tsa $5 ho kgubedu ho tswa tekanyetsong ya $100, ka moedi wa tahlehelo wa $50 le moedi wa phaello wa $50. Moedi wa tahlehelo o e fedisitse potolohong ya 36. Seshene e bontsha kamoo phapang e shebahalang kateng ka nako yona eo le hore na hobaneng molao wa ho emisa e le wona feela qeto e bileng bohlokwa.

tekanyetso
$100
tjhelete ya bete
$5 ho kgubedu
melao ya ho emisa
−$50 / +$50
tahlehelo e lebelletsweng
$8.11 ka dipotoloho tse 60

Moralo

Na ho na le leano le molemo ka ho fetisisa la roulette ka $100? Ha ho le theolang ditshenyehelo tsa karolelano. Tekanyetso eo ke tjhelete eo re ka e lahlehelwang; seo re se kgethang ke tjhelete ya bete le melao ya ho emisa. Tjhelete ya bete $5, 5% ya tekanyetso, e re fang dibete tse ka bang mashome a mabedi tse lahlehelwang matsohong. Moedi wa tahleheloleanoMoedi wa tahleheloPalo ya tahlehelo e behilweng esale pele eo ho yona o qetang seshene.Bala kaofela → ho −$50 le moedi wa phaelloleanoMoedi wa phaelloSepheo sa phaello se behilweng esale pele seo ho sona o qetang seshene.Bala kaofela → ho +$50, di etswa qeto jwale. Tahlehelo e lebelletswengdipaloTahlehelo e lebelletswengBoleng bo lebelletsweng bo atisitswe ka kakaretso ya tjhelete e betilweng; tjhelete ya karolelano e lahlehang ka seshene kapa nakong e itseng.Bala kaofela → ka dipotoloho tse 60 ke 60 × $5 / 37 = $8.11. Re lebeletse ho tsamaya ka hoo e ka bang $92 mme ho ba kae kapa kae pakeng tsa $20 le $170 ka monyetladipaloMonyetlaMonyetla wa sephetho, ho tloha ho 0 ho isa ho 1 kapa 0% ho isa ho 100%. Nomoro e le nngwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Bala kaofela → o utlwahalang.

Dipotoloho 1–20

K N N K K 0 N K K N K N N N K K N K N K. KgubedubeteKgubeduBete ya tefo e lekanang ho dinomoro tse 18 tse kgubedu. Sefora: rouge.Bala kaofela → tse leshome, ntshobeteNtshoBete ya tefo e lekanang ho dinomoro tse 18 tse ntsho. Sefora: noir.Bala kaofela → tse robong, zerolebidiZeroMokotlana o le mong o motala oo ho seng bete ya tefo e lekanang, ya dozen kapa ya kholomo e o koahelang; mohlodi wa molemo wa khasino. Hape: zero e le nngwe, 0.Bala kaofela → e le nngwe: +$50 − $45 − $5 = $0. Tjhelete e setseng $100. Zero potolohong ya 6 e jele tjhipitjheleteTjhipiTokene e emelang tjhelete e tsitsitseng, e behwang moralong wa dibete ho etsa bete. Hape: check.Bala kaofela → mme, ka 1/37, e ne e le pejana hanyane. Ha ho letho mona le sa tlwaelehang. Re lekana ka mora dipotoloho tse mashome a mabedi.

potolohosephethosephetho sa betetjhelete e setseng
1kgubedu+$5$105
2–3ntsho, ntsho−$10$95
4–5kgubedu, kgubedu+$10$105
6zero−$5$100
7ntsho−$5$95
8–9kgubedu, kgubedu+$10$105
10–14N K N N N−$15$90
15–16kgubedu, kgubedu+$10$100
17–20N K N K$0$100
Tatelano e etsisitsweng ho tswa lebiding le lokileng. Ya hao e tla fapana ka dintlha tsohle mme e se ke ya fapana ho dipalopalo leha e le efe.

Dipotoloho 21–36

N N N N N K N N K N N K N N N N. Ntsho tse hlano qalong, tse leshome le metso e meraro kaofela: kgubedu tse tharo, ntsho tse leshome le metso e meraro, +$15 − $65 = −$50. Tjhelete e setseng $50. Ena ke karolo e etsang hore batho ba fetole bete ya bona, ba e imenne habedi kapa ba fetole mmala. Monyetla wa ntsho tse 13 kapa ho feta ho dipotoloho tse 16 o ka tlase ho 1%; e ne e tla etsahalla motho e mong bosiung bona. Re tlase ka $50 ho tloha qalong, moedi wa tahlehelo o sebetsa potolohong ya 36, mme re a ema.

Ntsho tse leshome le metso e meraro ho dipotoloho tse leshome le metso e tsheletseng, mme moedi wa tahlehelo o fihlelwa potolohong ya 36.

Dipotoloho 37–60, ntle le rona

K N K N, ebe K K N K 0 K N K K N K K N N K K N K N K. Kgubedu tse leshome le metso e mene, ntsho tse robong, zero e le nngwe: hoja re ile ra dula, +$70 − $45 − $5 = +$20 le tjhelete e setseng ya $70 potolohong ya 60. Dipotoloho tse mashome a mararo a metso e tsheletseng tafoleng e phelang ke metsotso e ka bang 45. Re tsamaile ka $50, re tlase ka $50, kgahlanong le −$4.86 e lebelletsweng bakeng sa dipotoloho tse 36. Kgubedu tse leshome le metso e meraro, ntsho tse mashome a mabedi a metso e mmedi, zero e le nngwe.

Mantsiboya ana, le a mang a leshome le motso o mong a neng a ka etsahalasephetho kgahlanong le qalo
+$190$0−$100+$80−$500125250375500dipotolohosephetho
diseshene tse 1,000 × dipotoloho tse 500 · violet p10/p25/p75/p90, boputswa bo bobebe bohareng, disampole tse 82 tse fifetseng · tsamaisa hodima tjhate ho bona di-quantile potolohong
  • p10 −$100
  • p25 −$100
  • bohareng −$100
  • p75 +$0
  • p90 +$70
diseshene tse 1,000 × dipotoloho tse 500 · axis ya y e kgutsufaditswe ho percentile ya 1–99 (dipheletso −$100 ho isa ho +$300) · dipotoloho tse 500 · motheo $5 · tefo e lekanang
E nngwe ya tsena e batla e le mantsiboya a rona. Tse ding ke moralo o tshwanang ka masiu a mang. Moedi wa tahlehelo wa $50 o ka be o fedisitse tse pedi tsa tsona kapele; moedi wa phaello wa $50 o ka be o fedisitse e le nngwe.

Se etsahetseng

Re lefile hoo e ka bang $5 bakeng sa metsotso e 45 ya roulette, hammoho le $45 ya bomadimabe. Kgubedu tse leshome le metso e meraro ho dipotoloho tse 36 di tlase haholo ho 17.5 e lebelletsweng, mme kgubedu tse robong tse tlase ho ntsho ke −$45 pele ho zero. Mantsiboya a ile a etswa qeto ke phapangdipaloPhapang (Variance)Tekanyo ya hore na diphetho di hasane hakae ho potoloha boleng bo lebelletsweng. E phahame bakeng sa straight up, e tlase bakeng sa dibete tsa tefo e lekanang.Bala kaofela →; theko e entswe qeto ke tjhelete ya bete le dipotoloho; moedi wa tahlehelo o entse qeto ya hore a fele neng. Ho dula ho ka be ho kgutlisitse $20 potolohong ya 60, mme hoo hase lebaka la ho dula: ho kgutla ho ne ho boetse e le phapang, jwaloka letoto la ntsho le tlileng pele ho hona.

Seo re sa kang ra se etsa

Ho fetola tjhelete ya bete ka mora tahlehelo (eo ke tswelopele ya dibeteleanoTswelopele ya dibeteMolao ofe kapa ofe o fetolang bete ho ya ka diphetho tse fetileng. Ditswelopele tse mpe di e phahamisa ka mora ditahlehelo, tse ntle ka mora ho hlola.Bala kaofela →, mme e phahamisa kakaretso ya dibetetjheleteKakaretso ya dibeteTjhelete yohle e betilweng ka seshene kapa nakong e itseng, ho kenyeleditswe tjhelete e hlotsweng e betilweng hape. Hape: handle, action.Bala kaofela →). Ho fetola mmala ka mora letoto la ntsho (odds tse tshwanang). Ho dula ho feta dipotoloho tse 60 hobane re ne re “batla re lekana” (eo ke moedi wa tahlehelo o buisanwang botjha). Ho beta dozenbeteDozen1–12, 13–24 kapa 25–36, e lefa 2:1.Bala kaofela → e “neng e sa hlahe” (molemo o tshwanang, sebopeho se fapaneng). E nngwe le e nngwe ya tsena e ka be e fetotse sebopeho sa mantsiboya mme ha ho e ka beng e fetotse ditshenyehelo tsa ona tse lebelletsweng.

Dipotso

Hobaneng $5 e seng $10?

Ditjhipi tse mashome a mabedi matsohong ho ena le tse leshome. Mantsiboya a nka nako; ditshenyehelo potolohong ka nngwe di fokotseha ka halofo.

Na tafole ya Fora e ka be e thusitse?

Tahlehelo e lebelletsweng $4.05 ho ena le $8.11. E.

Na letoto la ntsho e ne e le letshwao?

La letho. Ntsho tse leshome le metso e meraro ho dipotoloho tse leshome le metso e tsheletseng di etsahala hoo e ka bang mantsiboya a le mang ho a 125.

Ho phomola ka metlae

Tjhelete ya bete le dipotoloho di beha theko. Lebidi le beha maikutlo.

Tjhelete ya bete le dipotoloho di beha theko. Lebidi le beha maikutlo.

Mehlodi

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Kgaolo ya 13, roulette.
e hlahlobilwe 2026-09-28mohlala: Yuropa, zero e le nngwemokgwa wa ho bala ↗mehlodi ↗